Cost of goods (COGS)
Every per-box variable cost
Founder calculator
Subscription Box Profit Calculator
Calculate unit economics, MRR, LTV, CAC payback, and break-even subscribers with live updates. This free profit calculator shows the real per-box math (COGS, platform fees, gross profit, and profit margin) plus LTV, CAC payback, and the exact subscriber count you need to break even.
- 40-50%Healthy gross marginIndustry benchmark
- 3:1+Healthy LTV:CACAbove this you can scale ads
- <6 moCAC payback targetRecover acquisition cost fast
- FreeAlwaysNo sign-up needed
Live calculator
Enter your numbers
Defaults reflect a typical 100-subscriber curated box at $39.99 with 7% monthly churn. Edit any input — every metric updates instantly.
Price & platform
Subscription price and where you charge it
Subscribers & churn
Active base and retention curve
Acquisition
CAC and monthly marketing budget
Live unit economics
$11.90 gross profit per box · 30% margin
Producing monthly net profit of $90.11 after fixed overhead and marketing. Healthy LTV:CAC of 5.67:1 means you can scale acquisition.
Gross profit / box$11.90After COGS + platform fees
Gross margin30%Healthy: 30-40%+
MRR$3,999.00100 subs × $39.99
Monthly net profit$90.11After overhead + marketing
LTV & CAC
Lifetime value vs. acquisition cost
The two numbers that decide whether you can profitably scale acquisition. Below 3:1 LTV:CAC, paid ads are a leak; above, you can grow.
Customer lifetime
14.3mo
At 7.0% churn
LTV
$170.02
Gross profit × lifetime
LTV : CAC
5.67: 1
Healthy 3:1+ · scale 5:1+
CAC payback
2.5mo
Healthy under 6 months
Break-even
What it takes to cover fixed costs
Subscribers needed to break even on monthly overhead and how long it takes to get there at your current acquisition rate.
Break-even subscribers
42 subscribers
You need 42 paying subscribers just to cover $500.00 monthly overhead. You currently have 100 — comfortably above break-even by 58 subscribers.
Growth gap / month+13.020 new − 7.0 churned
Months to break-even3.2At current growth
Lost subs / month7.0At 7.0% churn
12-month projection
Where the math takes you
MRR and monthly net profit projected over 12 months at your current acquisition and churn rates.
MRRMonthly net profit
M1 MRR$4,519
M12 MRR$8,317
M12 net$1,375
| Month | Subscribers | MRR | Gross profit | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | 113 | $4,518.87 | $1,344.83 | $244.83 |
| M3 | 136 | $5,451.98 | $1,622.52 | $522.52 |
| M6 | 166 | $6,620.70 | $1,970.34 | $870.34 |
| M9 | 189 | $7,560.77 | $2,250.10 | $1,150.10 |
| M12 | 208 | $8,316.92 | $2,475.14 | $1,375.14 |
Benchmarks
Where your numbers should land
Industry benchmarks to compare your numbers against. Use them as targets to steer the inputs toward.
Gross margin
30-40%
Healthy range after free shipping and fees. Top boxes reach 40%+.
Monthly churn
7-10%
Curated boxes typically sit in this range.
LTV:CAC
3:1+
Common health threshold for paid acquisition.
CAC payback
Under 6 months
Faster payback leaves more room to grow.
Method
How to calculate subscription box profit margin
Gross profit per box starts with your selling price and subtracts every unit cost: product, packaging, inbound freight, outbound shipping, fulfillment labor, spoilage, and platform fees. The result is the amount that actually supports your business.
Profit margin = gross profit per box ÷ box price × 100. A $39.99 box with $28.09 in COGS and platform fees earns $11.90 in gross profit, a 29.8% margin. Most of the difference from older guides is postage: a 2 lb box now costs about $9.95 to ship to a mid-distance zone with USPS Ground Advantage.
Once you know gross profit, you can estimate MRR, LTV, CAC payback, and break-even subscribers — a far better answer than revenue alone.
COGS
How to calculate COGS for a subscription box
COGS (cost of goods sold) is everything you spend to put one box on a subscriber's doorstep. For a subscription box that means the products inside, the mailer box and inserts, freight to bring products to you, postage to the customer, packing labor, and a small buffer for damaged or spoiled items.
Add those six numbers together to get COGS per box. With free shipping included, most healthy boxes keep COGS between 60% and 70% of the box price. If yours is higher, check shipping and packaging first, because they are usually easier to cut than product value.
Compounding
How churn affects the math
Churn quietly erodes every recurring business. Even a great product can struggle if the retention curve is weak. The 12-month projection above shows the subscriber compounding effect so you can see it before it shows up in your bank account.
If pricing needs tuning first, jump to the Pricing Calculator. If churn is the real problem, open the Churn Calculator next.
FAQ
Subscription box profit calculator FAQ
The questions founders ask most when reading their profit numbers.
Q01How do I calculate profit for a subscription box?
Start with gross profit per box: box price minus COGS (products, packaging, inbound freight, postage, packing labor, spoilage) minus platform and payment fees. Multiply that by your active subscribers to get monthly gross profit. Then subtract fixed overhead and marketing spend to get monthly net profit. The calculator above does all three steps and updates as you type.
Q02What's a healthy gross profit per box?
$12-$18 per box, a 30-40% margin, is the healthy zone for curated boxes at $35-$45 once 2026 shipping is included. Below $10 gross profit, fixed overhead and acquisition costs eat too much of every box for the model to scale. The number matters because every other metric on this page (LTV, CAC payback, break-even subscribers) is derived from gross profit per box, so fixing gross profit is the most leveraged single change you can make.
Q03Why does LTV:CAC of 3:1 matter so much?
Below 3:1, paid acquisition is unprofitable in any meaningful sense — you spend $1 to acquire a customer worth less than $3 of gross profit, leaving no room for overhead, retention work, or product investment. Above 3:1, you can scale acquisition aggressively. 5:1+ means you're under-spending on acquisition and could grow faster. 1:1 to 2:1 means you have a fundamental margin or churn problem, not an acquisition problem.
Q04What does CAC payback really mean?
CAC payback is how many months it takes for a subscriber's gross profit contribution to recover their acquisition cost. Under 6 months is healthy because most subscription-box churn happens in months 2-4 — short payback means you recover CAC before the bulk of churn hits. Above 12 months is dangerous; you'd need very low churn for most subscribers to ever turn profitable, and that's rarely true for newer boxes.
Q05What's the difference between gross profit and net profit?
Gross profit = revenue minus variable per-box costs (COGS + platform fees). Net profit = gross profit minus fixed overhead (rent, software, salaries) minus marketing spend. The split matters because gross profit tells you whether each box itself is profitable; net profit tells you whether the business as currently structured is profitable. A box can have healthy unit economics but a negative net profit if fixed overhead is too high — and that's usually the right kind of problem to have (you can scale into the overhead).
Q06Why does the projection assume constant new subscribers and churn?
The 12-month projection holds new subscribers and churn rate constant to isolate the compounding effect of your current numbers. In reality both move — acquisition tends to vary with marketing spend and seasonality, and churn often drops slightly as your base shifts toward longer-tenure subscribers. For a more sophisticated 24-month model with scenario comparison, use the Growth Simulator.
Q07How should I think about break-even subscribers?
Break-even subscribers = monthly fixed overhead ÷ gross profit per box. At $500 overhead and $15 gross profit per box, that's 34 subscribers just to cover overhead. Below that, you're losing money every month even before marketing spend. Above it, every additional subscriber adds gross profit straight to net. Most new boxes underestimate fixed overhead because they don't include their own time at a real labor rate — add at least $1,000-$2,000/month if you're full-time on the box.
Q08Should I include my own labor in fixed overhead?
Yes. If you're working full-time on the box, your time has a cost — usually $3,000-$8,000/month at a realistic founder salary. Excluding it gives you a flattering net profit number that doesn't match reality. The honest test: would this business support paying someone else (not you) to do this work and still produce a profit? If not, the current model isn't sustainable; either margin or scale needs to improve.
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